
“Bubble Watch” digs into trends that may indicate economic and/or housing market troubles ahead.
Buzz: Southern California had 18,632 foreclosure filings last year.
Source: Attom Data Solutions
The Trend
A history lesson is in order. Between 2006 and 2009, many of the bad mortgages that overheated the local housing market and the region’s economy turned sour.
In three years, the number of foreclosure filings in four Southern California counties — that’s court paperwork ranging from a formal notice of default to an actual lender sale — ballooned nearly eight-fold to an almost unfathomable 302,186. That’s roughly one for every 20 housing units.
Fast-forward to 2019. Yes, home prices may have surpassed the peaks that preceded the mortgage meltdown, but problem home loans are relatively hard to find.
Last year’s filings in the four-county region were off 20% from 2018 and down 94% from the Great Recession era of a decade ago. Last year’s filing activity equaled a pace equal to 1-in-333 housing units.
It’s part of a national improvement. Among the 100 largest county real estate markets, which includes the four Southern California counties, lenders made 223,237 filings in 2019. That was down 22% in a year and 87% below the 1.68 million a decade ago. Last year’s filings were 0.41% of all housing units vs. 3.3% in 2009.
The Dissection
Doom-and-gloomers like to claim the next foreclosure frenzy is almost here, projections that are more about fear-mongering than facts.
In three years, the number of foreclosure filings in four Southern California counties — that’s court paperwork ranging from a formal notice of default to an actual lender sale — ballooned nearly eight-fold to an almost unfathomable 302,186. That’s roughly one for every 20 housing units.
Fast-forward to 2019. Yes, home prices may have surpassed the peaks that preceded the mortgage meltdown, but problem home loans are relatively hard to find.
Last year’s filings in the four-county region were off 20% from 2018 and down 94% from the Great Recession era of a decade ago. Last year’s filing activity equaled a pace equal to 1-in-333 housing units.
It’s part of a national improvement. Among the 100 largest county real estate markets, which includes the four Southern California counties, lenders made 223,237 filings in 2019. That was down 22% in a year and 87% below the 1.68 million a decade ago. Last year’s filings were 0.41% of all housing units vs. 3.3% in 2009.
The Dissection
Doom-and-gloomers like to claim the next foreclosure frenzy is almost here, projections that are more about fear-mongering than facts.
Los Angeles: 9,310 filings were down 14% in a year. Filings are 93% below the 137,512 made a decade ago — the 15th biggest percentage drop of Top 100. Last year’s filings were rare: Just 0.27% of all housing units vs. 4.1% in 2009.
Orange: 2,129 filings, 28% below 2018 and down 94% from 38,298 a decade ago, the 10th biggest drop nationally. Last year’s filings were of 0.2% of all units vs. 3.7% in 2009.
Riverside: 3,806 filings, 28% below 2018 and down 95% from 69,855 a decade ago, the eighth-biggest drop. Last year’s filings were 0.46% of all units vs. 9.2% in 2009.
San Bernardino: 3,387 filings, 21% below 2018 and down 94% from 56,521 a decade ago, the 12th biggest drop. Last year’s filings were 0.48% of all units vs. 8.3% in 2009.